TE, Las Vegas Raiders
89
Brock Bowers
36%
Brock Bowers has a 36% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 41st highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 6.6, receiving yards 81.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−14%BUF defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.13 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.31 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 36% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
89Brock BowersTE, LV vs BUFReceptions: 6.6 proj, avg 6.4
50%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›9.7Targets
›69%Catch rate
›6.7Model
›6.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.3Avg line 6.5Projection 6.6Ceiling 9.9
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 6.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Brock BowersTE, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 81 proj, avg 76
55%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›25%Target share
›9.7Targets
›69%Catch rate
›6.7Receptions
›12.4Yards per catch
›83Model
›81Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
−8%BUF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 75.5Projection 81Ceiling 146
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 75.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | 79% | 82% | 70% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.