RB, Las Vegas Raiders
4
Mike Washington Jr.
19%
Mike Washington Jr. has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 134th highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 25.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+19%BUF defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 1.19 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
4Mike Washington Jr.RB, LV vs BUFRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 25
50%
63.4Projected plays
›39%Run rate
›25.0Team carries
›19%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›5.3Yards per carry
›26Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%BUF run D
+5%BUF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 25.5Projection 25Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 19% | 16% | 21% | 8% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.