WR, Las Vegas Raiders
1
Tre Tucker
29%
Tre Tucker has a 29% chance to score a touchdown against Buffalo Bills in Week 6, the 65th highest on this week's board. Las Vegas Raiders are projected for 24.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.0, receiving yards 61.
Touchdown breakdown
24.5Projected team points
2.6Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+22%BUF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.6 × 0.09 × 1.22 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.30 expected TDs = 26% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 29% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
1Tre TuckerWR, LV vs BUFReceptions: 4.0 proj, avg 3.6
56%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 4.0Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Tre TuckerWR, LV vs BUFReceiving yards: 61 proj, avg 49
62%
63.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›15.9Yards per catch
›65Model
›61Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+7%BUF pass D
+13%BUF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 49.5Projection 61Ceiling 109
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 59% | 57% | 67% | 75% |
The matchup
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas RaidersSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET. Allegiant Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.