WR, Los Angeles Rams
17
Davante Adams
43%
Davante Adams has a 43% chance to score a touchdown against Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, the 22nd highest on this week's board. Los Angeles Rams are projected for 32.0 points indoors. The model projects receptions 5.1, receiving yards 86.
Touchdown breakdown
32.0Projected team points
3.4Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+28%ARI defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
4TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
3.4 × 0.16 × 1.28 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.69 expected TDs = 50% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 43% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
17Davante AdamsWR, LA vs ARIReceptions: 5.1 proj, avg 5.0
39%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›8.2Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Model
›5.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 2.2Avg line 5.5Projection 5.1Ceiling 7.9
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Davante AdamsWR, LA vs ARIReceiving yards: 86 proj, avg 76
58%
69.4Projected plays
›61%Pass rate
›42.1Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›8.2Targets
›62%Catch rate
›5.1Receptions
›17.6Yards per catch
›89Model
›86Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−7%Game script
+4%ARI pass D
+16%ARI vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 75.5Projection 86Ceiling 154
The ring shows a
58% chance he goes over 75.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54% | 65% | 83% | 95% | 73% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.