WR, San Francisco 49ers
19
Deebo Samuel Sr.
37%
Deebo Samuel Sr. has a 37% chance to score a touchdown against Washington Commanders in Week 6, the 36th highest on this week's board. San Francisco 49ers are projected for 29.0 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
29.0Projected team points
3.0Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
+13%WAS defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
3.0 × 0.12 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.41 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WASReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
41%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›3.9Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 25
55%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›3.9Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.3Receptions
›8.8Yards per catch
›29Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 25.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 60% | 76% | 67% | 43% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.