WASWashington Commanders21.5projected
8:15 PM ETMon, Oct 19
WAS +330SF -380SF -7.5O/U 50.5Minimal impact
5days03hrs59min07secSFSan Francisco 49ers29.0projected
Levi's StadiumOpen air
GrassOpen air
63°FTemperature
13 mph WNWWind
2%Rain chance
62.3Projected plays per team
Conditions look neutral, so no weather adjustment is applied.
Touchdown chances
Washington Commanders
San Francisco 49ers
Player props
13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WASPassing yards: 262 proj, avg 240
65%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Pass attempts
›9.3Yards per attempt
›269Model
›262Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+9%WAS pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 188Avg line 239.5Projection 262Ceiling 335
The ring shows a
65% chance he goes over 239.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85George KittleTE, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 72 proj, avg 55
64%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.2Targets
›88%Catch rate
›5.4Receptions
›14.4Yards per catch
›78Model
›72Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+25%WAS vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 55.5Projection 72Ceiling 129
The ring shows a
64% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 77 proj, avg 65
60%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›7.5Targets
›71%Catch rate
›5.3Receptions
›15.2Yards per catch
›81Model
›77Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 65.5Projection 77Ceiling 138
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 65.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Mike EvansWR, SF vs WASReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 4.8
59%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›7.5Targets
›71%Catch rate
›5.3Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 4.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85George KittleTE, SF vs WASReceptions: 5.2 proj, avg 4.6
59%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.2Targets
›88%Catch rate
›5.4Model
›5.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+25%WAS vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.3Avg line 4.5Projection 5.2Ceiling 8.1
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Brock PurdyQB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 24 proj, avg 22
56%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›18%Carry share
›5.2Carries
›4.7Yards per carry
›25Model
›24Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
+0%WAS vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 21.5Projection 24Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 25
55%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›3.9Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.3Receptions
›8.8Yards per catch
›29Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 25.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 25.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 67 proj, avg 63
55%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›57%Carry share
›16.9Carries
›4.0Yards per carry
›68Model
›67Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
−4%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 24Avg line 62.5Projection 67Ceiling 110
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 62.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASReceiving yards: 39 proj, avg 38
52%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.3Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.7Receptions
›8.3Yards per catch
›39Model
›39Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
−7%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 39Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SFReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.7
51%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›59%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−13%SF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
23Christian McCaffreyRB, SF vs WASReceptions: 4.7 proj, avg 4.7
51%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›6.3Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.7Model
›4.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
−7%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.9Avg line 4.5Projection 4.7Ceiling 7.5
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
50%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›31Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 31Ceiling 56
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
26Kaelon BlackRB, SF vs WASRushing yards: 27 proj, avg 27
49%
58.7Projected plays
›51%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›26%Carry share
›7.8Carries
›3.5Yards per carry
›27Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+5%Game script
−4%WAS run D
−4%WAS vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.6
47%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.3Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 43
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›39Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 42.5Projection 40Ceiling 72
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 42.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 55
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.3Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›14.3Yards per catch
›50Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 54.5Projection 51Ceiling 92
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Stefon DiggsWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.5
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SFPassing yards: 165 proj, avg 169
45%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Pass attempts
›4.6Yards per attempt
›164Model
›165Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 119Avg line 169.5Projection 165Ceiling 212
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 169.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Chig OkonkwoTE, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 25 proj, avg 27
43%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.6Targets
›59%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›8.9Yards per catch
›24Model
›25Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−13%SF vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 27.5Projection 25Ceiling 45
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Jayden DanielsQB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 45 proj, avg 51
42%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›26%Carry share
›6.8Carries
›6.2Yards per carry
›42Model
›45Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
+0%SF vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 50.5Projection 45Ceiling 84
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 43 proj, avg 48
41%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›42%Carry share
›11.2Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›41Model
›43Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
−2%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 47.5Projection 43Ceiling 70
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF vs WASReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
41%
58.7Projected plays
›49%Pass rate
›29.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›3.9Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
−5%Game script
+6%WAS pass D
+7%WAS vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SFReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.5
40%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.4Targets
›92%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−4%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.0
39%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Rachaad WhiteRB, WAS vs SFRushing yards: 25 proj, avg 30
37%
62.3Projected plays
›42%Run rate
›26.4Team carries
›24%Carry share
›6.2Carries
›3.9Yards per carry
›24Model
›25Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−6%Game script
−3%SF run D
−2%SF vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 29.5Projection 25Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders | −18% | +18% | +62% | +0% | 29 | 9 | 75% |
| San Francisco 49ers | −11% | −4% | −33% | +0% | 7 | 10 | 47% |