QB, New York Giants
19
Jameis Winston
6%
Jameis Winston has a 6% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 193rd highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 204.
Touchdown breakdown
22.3Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
2%Share of team TD chances
−23%NO defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.02 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.04 expected TDs = 4% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 6% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
19Jameis WinstonQB, NYG vs NOPassing yards: 204 proj, avg 201
53%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Pass attempts
›5.6Yards per attempt
›205Model
›204Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−1%NO pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 147Avg line 201.5Projection 204Ceiling 262
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 201.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 88% | 100% | 100% | 94% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.