NONew Orleans Saints23.3projected
1:00 PM ETSun, Oct 18
NO -112NYG -102NYG +1O/U 45.5Minimal impact
3days20hrs44min08secNYGNew York Giants22.3projected
MetLife StadiumOpen air
TurfOpen air
55°FTemperature
7 mph WWind
1%Rain chance
66.5Projected plays per team
Conditions look neutral, so no weather adjustment is applied.
Touchdown chances
New Orleans Saints
New York Giants
Player props
23Najee HarrisRB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 29 proj, avg 24
62%
65.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›26%Carry share
›7.4Carries
›4.1Yards per carry
›31Model
›29Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 24.5Projection 29Ceiling 48
The ring shows a
62% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 64 proj, avg 56
61%
65.7Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›52%Carry share
›14.8Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›67Model
›64Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 23Avg line 55.5Projection 64Ceiling 105
The ring shows a
61% chance he goes over 55.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 20
59%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›9.0Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+17%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 19.5Projection 23Ceiling 41
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYGRushing yards: 36 proj, avg 32
57%
66.5Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›43%Carry share
›10.1Carries
›3.6Yards per carry
›37Model
›36Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+1%Game script
+4%NYG run D
+1%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 32.5Projection 36Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 24 proj, avg 22
57%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›14.0Yards per catch
›25Model
›24Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 21.5Projection 24Ceiling 43
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 21.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Kendre MillerRB, NO vs NYGRushing yards: 27 proj, avg 24
57%
66.5Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›32%Carry share
›7.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›28Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+1%Game script
+4%NYG run D
+1%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 24.5Projection 27Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 73 proj, avg 67
56%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›5.8Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›75Model
›73Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 66.5Projection 73Ceiling 131
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYGReceptions: 4.9 proj, avg 4.8
55%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.5Targets
›76%Catch rate
›5.0Model
›4.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 4.5Projection 4.9Ceiling 7.8
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Jameis WinstonQB, NYG vs NOPassing yards: 204 proj, avg 201
53%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Pass attempts
›5.6Yards per attempt
›205Model
›204Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−1%NO pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 147Avg line 201.5Projection 204Ceiling 262
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 201.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Darnell MooneyWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 1.7 proj, avg 1.6
51%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.7Ceiling 3.4
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Malik NabersWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 5.7 proj, avg 5.3
51%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›5.8Model
›5.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.6Avg line 5.5Projection 5.7Ceiling 8.8
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 57 proj, avg 57
50%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›8.6Yards per catch
›57Model
›57Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 56.5Projection 57Ceiling 102
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 56.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
83Juwan JohnsonTE, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 51
50%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›6.5Targets
›76%Catch rate
›5.0Receptions
›10.2Yards per catch
›51Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
−2%NYG vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 50.5Projection 51Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 29
50%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.0Receptions
›15.0Yards per catch
›29Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
9Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG vs NOReceptions: 6.6 proj, avg 6.6
49%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›26%Target share
›9.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.3Avg line 6.5Projection 6.6Ceiling 9.9
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 6.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 92 proj, avg 94
49%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›24%Target share
›10.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.2Receptions
›12.7Yards per catch
›91Model
›92Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 93.5Projection 92Ceiling 164
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 93.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYGReceiving yards: 42 proj, avg 43
48%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›6.1Targets
›67%Catch rate
›4.1Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›42Model
›42Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 43.5Projection 42Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Cam SkatteboRB, NYG vs NOReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.4
48%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+17%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Tyler ShoughQB, NO vs NYGPassing yards: 236 proj, avg 243
45%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Pass attempts
›5.4Yards per attempt
›234Model
›236Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−2%NYG pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 169Avg line 242.5Projection 236Ceiling 302
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 242.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Chris OlaveWR, NO vs NYGReceptions: 7.2 proj, avg 7.2
43%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›24%Target share
›10.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›7.2Model
›7.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3.7Avg line 7.5Projection 7.2Ceiling 10.6
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 7.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYGReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.1
40%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›4.0Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+2%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Devaughn VeleWR, NO vs NYGReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.1
39%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›6.1Targets
›67%Catch rate
›4.1Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+1%NYG vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.7
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Malachi FieldsWR, NYG vs NOReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
31%
65.7Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
+4%NO vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +42% | +11% | −6% | −33% | 11 | 30 | 54% |
| New York Giants | +5% | +3% | −6% | +33% | 8 | 24 | 47% |