QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
8
Aaron Rodgers
9%
Aaron Rodgers has a 9% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 186th highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 216.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
−23%TB defense vs QBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.05 × 0.77 × 1.03 × 1.00 =
0.08 expected TDs = 8% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
8Aaron RodgersQB, PIT vs TBPassing yards: 216 proj, avg 231
37%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Pass attempts
›5.5Yards per attempt
›211Model
›216Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+1%TB pass defense
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 155Avg line 231.5Projection 216Ceiling 277
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 231.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 96% | 100% | 100% | 97% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.