PITPittsburgh Steelers21.0projected
1:00 PM ETSun, Oct 18
PIT -134TB +125TB +2.5O/U 39.5Moderate impact
3days20hrs44min07secTBTampa Bay Buccaneers18.5projected
Raymond James StadiumOpen air
GrassOpen air
77°FTemperature
18 mph ENEWind
9%Rain chance
59.0Projected plays per team
Wind around 18 mph trims passing touchdown odds about 8% and passing yards about 7%.
Touchdown chances
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Player props
4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.7 proj, avg 3.9
51%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.7Targets
›54%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.7Ceiling 6.2
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Chris Godwin Jr.WR, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.7
48%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›74%Catch rate
›3.6Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 33
48%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.6Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›9.4Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 33.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.7
48%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−2%PIT vs TEs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 71 proj, avg 72
48%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›61%Carry share
›15.6Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›70Model
›71Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−1%PIT vs RBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 25Avg line 72.5Projection 71Ceiling 116
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 72.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBRushing yards: 72 proj, avg 73
48%
59.0Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›20.6Team carries
›71%Carry share
›14.6Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›71Model
›72Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
−7%TB run D
−4%TB vs RBs
+2%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 26Avg line 73.5Projection 72Ceiling 118
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 73.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 19 proj, avg 20
47%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›6.1Yards per catch
›18Model
›19Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 19.5Projection 19Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 19.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 36
46%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›3.3Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›32Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−7%TB vs RBs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 35
46%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›10.3Yards per catch
›33Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 35.5Projection 33Ceiling 60
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.4
45%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.6Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
+3%TB vs TEs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 30
44%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›12.8Yards per catch
›26Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4DK MetcalfWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 45 proj, avg 50
44%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.7Targets
›54%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›44Model
›45Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 49.5Projection 45Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
88Cade OttonTE, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 37
44%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›9.3Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−2%PIT vs TEs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Chris Godwin Jr.WR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 38
43%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.8Targets
›74%Catch rate
›3.6Receptions
›9.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 37.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 45
42%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.0Targets
›55%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›10.2Yards per catch
›39Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 45.5Projection 41Ceiling 73
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
30Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.3 proj, avg 3.3
42%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›4.5Targets
›72%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−7%TB vs RBs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.0Avg line 3.5Projection 3.3Ceiling 5.6
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Germie BernardWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
39%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›63%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PITPassing yards: 200 proj, avg 212
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Pass attempts
›5.8Yards per attempt
›196Model
›200Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−2%PIT pass defense
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 144Avg line 212.5Projection 200Ceiling 257
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 212.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PITReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 32
39%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.8Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Receptions
›14.5Yards per catch
›26Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 32.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Kenny GainwellRB, TB vs PITReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.2
37%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
6Baker MayfieldQB, TB vs PITRushing yards: 18 proj, avg 22
37%
59.0Projected plays
›43%Run rate
›25.4Team carries
›12%Carry share
›3.1Carries
›5.5Yards per carry
›17Model
›18Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−2%Game script
−2%PIT run D
−17%PIT vs QBs
+2%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 2Avg line 22.5Projection 18Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Aaron RodgersQB, PIT vs TBPassing yards: 216 proj, avg 231
37%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Pass attempts
›5.5Yards per attempt
›211Model
›216Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+1%TB pass defense
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 155Avg line 231.5Projection 216Ceiling 277
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 231.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Bucky IrvingRB, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 3.0
35%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.6Targets
›83%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Emeka EgbukaWR, TB vs PITReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 4.0
35%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›7.0Targets
›55%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 4.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.4
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
35%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 3.9
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Ted Hurst IIIWR, TB vs PITReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 2.0
28%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.8Targets
›48%Catch rate
›1.8Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−8%PIT vs WRs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 2.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.6
The ring shows a
28% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | −3% | −19% | −6% | −33% | 16 | 13 | 29% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | −18% | −4% | +8% | −33% | 20 | 2 | 44% |