WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
14
Roman Wilson
19%
Roman Wilson has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, the 132nd highest on this week's board. Pittsburgh Steelers are projected for 21.0 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.1, receiving yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
21.0Projected team points
2.2Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
−3%TB defense vs WRs
−8%Weather
−4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.2 × 0.11 × 0.97 × 0.92 × 0.96 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TBReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
35%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 3.9
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Roman WilsonWR, PIT vs TBReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 30
44%
59.0Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›38.4Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.7Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›12.8Yards per catch
›26Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%TB pass D
−2%TB vs WRs
−7%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 79% | 39% | 31% | 33% |
The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.