TE, Atlanta Falcons
81
Austin Hooper
15%
Austin Hooper has a 15% chance to score a touchdown against Chicago Bears in Week 6, the 191st highest on this week's board. Atlanta Falcons are projected for 25.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 1.6.
Touchdown breakdown
25.3Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−23%CHI defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 0.77 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.14 expected TDs = 13% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 15% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
81Austin HooperTE, ATL vs CHIReceptions: 1.6 proj, avg 1.7
49%
65.6Projected plays
›48%Pass rate
›31.7Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.3Targets
›69%Catch rate
›1.6Model
›1.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+7%Pace
+1%Game script
−2%CHI pass D
−13%CHI vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.0Avg line 1.5Projection 1.6Ceiling 3.3
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 1.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23% | 43% | 23% | 23% | 16% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.