RB, New York Giants
29
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
24%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has a 24% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 97th highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.5 points in 55°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 33.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+29%NO defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.08 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.25 expected TDs = 22% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 24% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
29Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB, NYG vs NORushing yards: 33 proj, avg 27
63%
65.8Projected plays
›44%Run rate
›28.7Team carries
›25%Carry share
›7.2Carries
›4.8Yards per carry
›35Model
›33Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−1%Game script
+7%NO run D
+8%NO vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 27.5Projection 33Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
63% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3% | 2% | 2% | 18% | 19% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.