RB, New York Jets
0
Braelon Allen
30%
Braelon Allen has a 30% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 56th highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 35.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
−2%NE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.20 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.40 expected TDs = 33% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 30% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
0Braelon AllenRB, NYJ vs NERushing yards: 35 proj, avg 36
50%
59.2Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›37%Carry share
›8.9Carries
›4.0Yards per carry
›35Model
›35Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%NE run D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 35.5Projection 35Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 31% | 52% | 94% | 86% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.