NYJNew York Jets18.3projected
1:00 PM ETSun, Oct 18
NYJ +280NE -330NE -7O/U 43.5Minimal impact
3days20hrs44min08secNENew England Patriots25.3projected
Gillette StadiumOpen air
TurfOpen air
50°FTemperature
7 mph WWind
1%Rain chance
59.2Projected plays per team
Conditions look neutral, so no weather adjustment is applied.
Touchdown chances
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Player props
5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 6.4 proj, avg 5.8
61%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›28%Target share
›9.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Model
›6.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 3.2Avg line 5.5Projection 6.4Ceiling 9.6
The ring shows a
61% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 2.8
57%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.7Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
5Garrett WilsonWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 74 proj, avg 68
56%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›28%Target share
›9.7Targets
›68%Catch rate
›6.6Receptions
›11.5Yards per catch
›76Model
›74Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 15Avg line 67.5Projection 74Ceiling 133
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 67.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
32TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 51 proj, avg 47
55%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›36%Carry share
›10.7Carries
›4.9Yards per carry
›52Model
›51Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 47.5Projection 51Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Geno SmithQB, NYJ vs NEPassing yards: 222 proj, avg 217
55%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Pass attempts
›6.4Yards per attempt
›224Model
›222Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 160Avg line 216.5Projection 222Ceiling 285
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 216.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 26
54%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›29Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 28Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 47 proj, avg 45
54%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›35%Carry share
›10.5Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›48Model
›47Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
+2%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 44.5Projection 47Ceiling 77
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
52%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›10.6Yards per catch
›28Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 29
51%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.7Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›30Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 30Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.7
50%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
0Braelon AllenRB, NYJ vs NERushing yards: 35 proj, avg 36
50%
59.2Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›37%Carry share
›8.9Carries
›4.0Yards per carry
›35Model
›35Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%NE run D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 35.5Projection 35Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 27
49%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›26Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 26Ceiling 47
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.5
47%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 25
47%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›23Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 23Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.7
47%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›79%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
+5%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJRushing yards: 28 proj, avg 30
46%
61.2Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›29.7Team carries
›21%Carry share
›6.1Carries
›4.4Yards per carry
›27Model
›28Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
+2%NYJ run D
−17%NYJ vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 29.5Projection 28Ceiling 52
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 44
46%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›16.2Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 43.5Projection 41Ceiling 73
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 43.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Romeo DoubsWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.6
46%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.4Targets
›56%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
38Rhamondre StevensonRB, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 22 proj, avg 23
45%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›79%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›8.5Yards per catch
›21Model
›22Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
+5%NYJ vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 23.5Projection 22Ceiling 39
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 29
43%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.4Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›12.0Yards per catch
›25Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 28.5Projection 26Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 28.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NERushing yards: 56 proj, avg 62
42%
59.2Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›60%Carry share
›14.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›54Model
›56Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%NE run D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 20Avg line 61.5Projection 56Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 61.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.0
38%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Efton Chism IIIWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.2
37%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.1Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJReceiving yards: 32 proj, avg 39
36%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›11.1Yards per catch
›30Model
›32Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 39.5Projection 32Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 39.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3DeMario DouglasWR, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.3
35%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.4Targets
›60%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−2%NYJ vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Drake MayeQB, NE vs NYJPassing yards: 229 proj, avg 251
34%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Pass attempts
›7.0Yards per attempt
›222Model
›229Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 165Avg line 250.5Projection 229Ceiling 294
The ring shows a
34% chance he goes over 250.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Hunter HenryTE, NE vs NYJReceptions: 2.8 proj, avg 3.2
31%
61.2Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›31.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.9Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−5%Game script
−6%NYJ pass D
−13%NYJ vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.7Avg line 3.5Projection 2.8Ceiling 5.0
The ring shows a
31% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | +12% | −4% | −33% | −33% | 4 | 20 | 47% |
| New England Patriots | −3% | +3% | −20% | +0% | 10 | 6 | 53% |