WR, New York Jets
18
Isaiah Williams
17%
Isaiah Williams has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 152nd highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.6, receiving yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+2%NE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.08 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.6 proj, avg 2.5
47%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.6Model
›2.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.6Ceiling 4.6
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
18Isaiah WilliamsWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 27
52%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.6Receptions
›10.6Yards per catch
›28Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 82% | 89% | 94% | 61% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.