TE, New York Jets
16
Kenyon Sadiq
23%
Kenyon Sadiq has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 105th highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.0, receiving yards 30.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−14%NE defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.10 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 2.8
57%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.7Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Kenyon SadiqTE, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 30 proj, avg 29
51%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.7Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›9.9Yards per catch
›30Model
›30Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−8%NE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 30Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42% | 36% | 58% | 69% | 19% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.