RB, New York Jets
20
Breece Hall
38%
Breece Hall has a 38% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 32nd highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 56, receptions 2.7, receiving yards 26.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
18%Share of team TD chances
−2%NE defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+11%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.18 × 0.98 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.32 expected TDs = 27% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 38% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NERushing yards: 56 proj, avg 62
42%
59.2Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›60%Carry share
›14.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›54Model
›56Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
−6%Game script
−5%NE run D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 20Avg line 61.5Projection 56Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 61.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.7
50%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Breece HallRB, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 27
49%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.1Targets
›87%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›26Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
−1%NE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 26Ceiling 47
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58% | 65% | 48% | – | – |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.