WR, New York Jets
17
Tim Patrick
12%
Tim Patrick has a 12% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 179th highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.2, receiving yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
5%Share of team TD chances
+2%NE defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.05 × 1.02 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.11 expected TDs = 10% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 12% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NEReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.0
38%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Tim PatrickWR, NYJ vs NEReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 26
54%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.4Targets
›67%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›12.9Yards per catch
›29Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass D
+1%NE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 26.5Projection 28Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | – | 93% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.