QB, New York Jets
7
Geno Smith
9%
Geno Smith has a 9% chance to score a touchdown against New England Patriots in Week 6, the 187th highest on this week's board. New York Jets are projected for 18.3 points in 50°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 222.
Touchdown breakdown
18.3Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
3%Share of team TD chances
+0%NE defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.03 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.05 expected TDs = 5% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 9% chance to score. Rated dart throw.Player props
7Geno SmithQB, NYJ vs NEPassing yards: 222 proj, avg 217
55%
59.2Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›35.2Pass attempts
›6.4Yards per attempt
›224Model
›222Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+2%Pace
+4%Game script
−3%NE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 160Avg line 216.5Projection 222Ceiling 285
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 216.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
New York Jets at New England PatriotsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Gillette Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.