TE, Chicago Bears
84
Colston Loveland
23%
Colston Loveland has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against Atlanta Falcons in Week 6, the 98th highest on this week's board. Chicago Bears are projected for 26.3 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.1, receiving yards 34.
Touchdown breakdown
26.3Projected team points
2.8Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+6%ATL defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.8 × 0.07 × 1.06 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.20 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATLReceptions: 3.1 proj, avg 3.0
37%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.1Model
›3.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 3.5Projection 3.1Ceiling 5.3
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Colston LovelandTE, CHI vs ATLReceiving yards: 34 proj, avg 31
55%
69.9Projected plays
›50%Pass rate
›35.3Team pass attempts
›14%Target share
›4.9Targets
›64%Catch rate
›3.1Receptions
›11.3Yards per catch
›35Model
›34Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−1%Game script
+5%ATL pass D
+3%ATL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 31.5Projection 34Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 86% | 79% | 92% | 80% |
The matchup
Chicago Bears at Atlanta FalconsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.