RB, Philadelphia Eagles
39
Dameon Pierce
34%
Dameon Pierce has a 34% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 48th highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 20.0 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.2.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
+8%CAR defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+13%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.09 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
39Dameon PierceRB, PHI vs CARReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.0
37%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.5Targets
›41%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
+5%CAR vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | – | – | – | 77% |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.