WR, Philadelphia Eagles
13
Dontayvion Wicks
23%
Dontayvion Wicks has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 106th highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 20.0 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.5, receiving yards 53.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−15%CAR defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.13 × 0.85 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.23 expected TDs = 21% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
13Dontayvion WicksWR, PHI vs CARReceptions: 3.5 proj, avg 3.4
45%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.0Targets
›58%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.5Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Dontayvion WicksWR, PHI vs CARReceiving yards: 53 proj, avg 52
50%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›6.0Targets
›58%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›15.3Yards per catch
›53Model
›53Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+3%CAR pass D
−8%CAR vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 52.5Projection 53Ceiling 95
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 52.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 62% | 88% | 92% | 84% |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.