QB, Philadelphia Eagles
1
Jalen Hurts
25%
Jalen Hurts has a 25% chance to score a touchdown against Carolina Panthers in Week 6, the 90th highest on this week's board. Philadelphia Eagles are projected for 20.0 points in 55°F with 5 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 203, rushing yards 28.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
11%Share of team TD chances
+29%CAR defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.11 × 1.29 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 25% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
1Jalen HurtsQB, PHI vs CARPassing yards: 203 proj, avg 193
60%
58.9Projected plays
›59%Pass rate
›34.9Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›207Model
›203Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+0%Game script
+2%CAR pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 146Avg line 192.5Projection 203Ceiling 261
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 192.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1Jalen HurtsQB, PHI vs CARRushing yards: 28 proj, avg 23
59%
58.9Projected plays
›41%Run rate
›24.0Team carries
›22%Carry share
›5.2Carries
›5.7Yards per carry
›30Model
›28Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−0%Game script
+7%CAR run D
+21%CAR vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 23.5Projection 28Ceiling 54
The ring shows a
59% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 92% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia EaglesSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lincoln Financial Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.