QB, Indianapolis Colts
17
Daniel Jones
17%
Daniel Jones has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Tennessee Titans in Week 6, the 150th highest on this week's board. Indianapolis Colts are projected for 25.5 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 205.
Touchdown breakdown
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+0%TEN defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.18 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
17Daniel JonesQB, IND vs TENPassing yards: 205 proj, avg 218
39%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Pass attempts
›5.9Yards per attempt
›201Model
›205Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%TEN pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 148Avg line 217.5Projection 205Ceiling 263
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 217.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.