WR, Indianapolis Colts
13
Laquon Treadwell
18%
Laquon Treadwell has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Tennessee Titans in Week 6, the 142nd highest on this week's board. Indianapolis Colts are projected for 25.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 2.1, receiving yards 31.
Touchdown breakdown
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−3%TEN defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+0%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.07 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
13Laquon TreadwellWR, IND vs TENReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.2
36%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Laquon TreadwellWR, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
49%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›11%Target share
›3.7Targets
›57%Catch rate
›2.1Receptions
›14.5Yards per catch
›31Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−2%TEN vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 31Ceiling 55
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 74% | 79% | 85% | 80% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.