TE, Indianapolis Colts
84
Tyler Warren
40%
Tyler Warren has a 40% chance to score a touchdown against Tennessee Titans in Week 6, the 27th highest on this week's board. Indianapolis Colts are projected for 25.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 5.0, receiving yards 41.
Touchdown breakdown
25.5Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−14%TEN defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.16 × 0.86 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.38 expected TDs = 32% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 40% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
84Tyler WarrenTE, IND vs TENReceptions: 5.0 proj, avg 5.4
39%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.9Model
›5.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−8%TEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.1Avg line 5.5Projection 5.0Ceiling 7.9
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Tyler WarrenTE, IND vs TENReceiving yards: 41 proj, avg 45
44%
61.1Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›33.9Team pass attempts
›19%Target share
›6.6Targets
›74%Catch rate
›4.9Receptions
›8.1Yards per catch
›40Model
›41Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−5%Pace
−4%Game script
−1%TEN pass D
−8%TEN vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 44.5Projection 41Ceiling 74
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 89% | 94% | 85% | 94% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.