QB, Cleveland Browns
4
Deshaun Watson
17%
Deshaun Watson has a 17% chance to score a touchdown against Baltimore Ravens in Week 6, the 146th highest on this week's board. Cleveland Browns are projected for 18.8 points in 58°F with 9 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 209, rushing yards 32.
Touchdown breakdown
18.8Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
+0%BAL defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+6%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.06 × 1.00 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.12 expected TDs = 11% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 17% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BALPassing yards: 209 proj, avg 202
56%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Pass attempts
›6.1Yards per attempt
›212Model
›209Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
−0%BAL pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 150Avg line 202.5Projection 209Ceiling 268
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 202.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BALRushing yards: 32 proj, avg 33
48%
58.5Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›30%Carry share
›7.1Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›32Model
›32Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%BAL run D
+0%BAL vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 33.5Projection 32Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 99% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland BrownsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Huntington Bank Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.