BALBaltimore Ravens23.8projected
1:00 PM ETSun, Oct 18
BAL -230CLE +215CLE +5O/U 42.5Minimal impact
3days20hrs44min08secCLECleveland Browns18.8projected
Huntington Bank FieldOpen air
GrassOpen air
58°FTemperature
9 mph SWWind
1%Rain chance
59.6Projected plays per team
Conditions look neutral, so no weather adjustment is applied.
Touchdown chances
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
Player props
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.0 proj, avg 2.9
57%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.5Targets
›85%Catch rate
›3.0Model
›3.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.8Avg line 2.5Projection 3.0Ceiling 5.2
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BALPassing yards: 209 proj, avg 202
56%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Pass attempts
›6.1Yards per attempt
›212Model
›209Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
−0%BAL pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 150Avg line 202.5Projection 209Ceiling 268
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 202.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 6.0 proj, avg 5.8
55%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›27%Target share
›7.4Targets
›81%Catch rate
›6.0Model
›6.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 2.8Avg line 5.5Projection 6.0Ceiling 9.1
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 40 proj, avg 37
54%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›4.2Receptions
›9.6Yards per catch
›41Model
›40Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
+3%BAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 37.5Projection 40Ceiling 71
The ring shows a
54% chance he goes over 37.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Zay FlowersWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 90 proj, avg 86
52%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›27%Target share
›7.4Targets
›81%Catch rate
›6.0Receptions
›15.1Yards per catch
›91Model
›90Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 86.5Projection 90Ceiling 161
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 86.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 17
51%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.5Targets
›85%Catch rate
›3.0Receptions
›6.0Yards per catch
›18Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 17.5Projection 18Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 17.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 27 proj, avg 28
50%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.2Targets
›48%Catch rate
›2.5Receptions
›10.9Yards per catch
›27Model
›27Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 27.5Projection 27Ceiling 49
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 27.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
81Devontez WalkerWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 23
50%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›1.6Targets
›67%Catch rate
›1.1Receptions
›21.3Yards per catch
›24Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 23.5Projection 23Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 23.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 65 proj, avg 66
49%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.2Targets
›51%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›20.3Yards per catch
›65Model
›65Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 66.5Projection 65Ceiling 117
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 66.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.8
48%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›4.9Targets
›71%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.2Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
22Derrick HenryRB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 92 proj, avg 95
48%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›66%Carry share
›21.1Carries
›4.3Yards per carry
›92Model
›92Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−5%CLE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 33Avg line 94.5Projection 92Ceiling 152
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 94.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE vs BALRushing yards: 32 proj, avg 33
48%
58.5Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›30%Carry share
›7.1Carries
›4.5Yards per carry
›32Model
›32Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%BAL run D
+0%BAL vs QBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 33.5Projection 32Ceiling 61
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 33.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 35
47%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›14.2Yards per catch
›33Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 34.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 34.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BALReceiving yards: 28 proj, avg 30
47%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.4Receptions
›8.1Yards per catch
›28Model
›28Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 29.5Projection 28Ceiling 50
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
43Justice HillRB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 20 proj, avg 20
46%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›9%Carry share
›3.0Carries
›6.4Yards per carry
›19Model
›20Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−5%CLE vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 20.5Projection 20Ceiling 32
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 20.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
10Quinshon JudkinsRB, CLE vs BALRushing yards: 48 proj, avg 50
46%
58.5Projected plays
›40%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›63%Carry share
›14.9Carries
›3.2Yards per carry
›48Model
›48Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%BAL run D
−1%BAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 50.5Projection 48Ceiling 79
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
89Mark AndrewsTE, BAL vs CLEReceiving yards: 29 proj, avg 31
46%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›4.9Targets
›71%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›8.2Yards per catch
›29Model
›29Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+3%CLE vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 29Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jerry JeudyWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
46%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.2Targets
›48%Catch rate
›2.5Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
1KC ConcepcionWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.4 proj, avg 3.6
45%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›16%Target share
›5.7Targets
›60%Catch rate
›3.4Model
›3.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.4Ceiling 5.8
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLEPassing yards: 211 proj, avg 219
44%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Pass attempts
›7.6Yards per attempt
›208Model
›211Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
+1%CLE pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 152Avg line 218.5Projection 211Ceiling 270
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 218.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7Rashod BatemanWR, BAL vs CLEReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.5
42%
59.6Projected plays
›46%Pass rate
›27.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›3.3Targets
›70%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
−4%Game script
−2%CLE pass D
+7%CLE vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
42% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
44Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE vs BALReceptions: 4.2 proj, avg 4.0
40%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.1Targets
›69%Catch rate
›4.2Model
›4.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
+3%BAL vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 1.6Avg line 4.5Projection 4.2Ceiling 6.8
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
8Lamar JacksonQB, BAL vs CLERushing yards: 27 proj, avg 31
40%
59.6Projected plays
›54%Run rate
›32.1Team carries
›15%Carry share
›4.8Carries
›5.3Yards per carry
›25Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%CLE run D
−17%CLE vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 31.5Projection 27Ceiling 51
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Denzel BostonWR, CLE vs BALReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.2
40%
58.5Projected plays
›60%Pass rate
›34.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.2Targets
›51%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+3%Game script
+1%BAL pass D
−8%BAL vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | −3% | −19% | +8% | +0% | 18 | 12 | 50% |
| Cleveland Browns | −26% | +18% | +8% | −33% | 13 | 19 | 32% |