RB, Seattle Seahawks
23
Emanuel Wilson
42%
Emanuel Wilson has a 42% chance to score a touchdown against Denver Broncos in Week 6, the 23rd highest on this week's board. Seattle Seahawks are projected for 21.5 points in 51°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 55.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
26%Share of team TD chances
+4%DEN defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−6%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.26 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.65 expected TDs = 48% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 42% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
23Emanuel WilsonRB, SEA vs DENRushing yards: 55 proj, avg 50
57%
57.6Projected plays
›47%Run rate
›27.0Team carries
›57%Carry share
›15.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›57Model
›55Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
+6%DEN run D
+1%DEN vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 20Avg line 50.5Projection 55Ceiling 91
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | 41% | 36% | 60% | 59% |
The matchup
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET. Empower Field at Mile High. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.