QB, Arizona Cardinals
7
Jacoby Brissett
18%
Jacoby Brissett has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 139th highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects passing yards 243.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+23%LA defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.08 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.19 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
7Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI vs LAPassing yards: 243 proj, avg 229
60%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Pass attempts
›5.3Yards per attempt
›248Model
›243Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−4%LA pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Dome
Floor 175Avg line 229.5Projection 243Ceiling 312
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 229.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.