RB, Arizona Cardinals
4
Jeremiyah Love
33%
Jeremiyah Love has a 33% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 51st highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 46, receptions 2.3.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
−13%LA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+9%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.15 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
4Jeremiyah LoveRB, ARI vs LARushing yards: 46 proj, avg 49
45%
68.2Projected plays
›32%Run rate
›21.6Team carries
›56%Carry share
›12.2Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›45Model
›46Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−12%Game script
+4%LA run D
−4%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 17Avg line 49.5Projection 46Ceiling 76
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 49.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Jeremiyah LoveRB, ARI vs LAReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.2
41%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›3.1Targets
›76%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−7%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.2
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43% | 40% | 64% | 45% | 49% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.