WR, Arizona Cardinals
14
Michael Wilson
34%
Michael Wilson has a 34% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 46th highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 6.0, receiving yards 65.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+13%LA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.16 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.39 expected TDs = 32% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 34% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
14Michael WilsonWR, ARI vs LAReceptions: 6.0 proj, avg 5.3
56%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›10.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›6.2Model
›6.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.9Avg line 5.5Projection 6.0Ceiling 9.1
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Michael WilsonWR, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 65 proj, avg 58
56%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›10.3Targets
›60%Catch rate
›6.2Receptions
›10.7Yards per catch
›67Model
›65Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 58.5Projection 65Ceiling 116
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 58.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85% | 94% | 93% | 94% | 84% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.