WR, Arizona Cardinals
17
Kendrick Bourne
18%
Kendrick Bourne has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 143rd highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 4.4, receiving yards 46.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+13%LA defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.0 × 0.07 × 1.13 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
17Kendrick BourneWR, ARI vs LAReceptions: 4.4 proj, avg 4.2
46%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.7Targets
›79%Catch rate
›4.5Model
›4.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.7Avg line 4.5Projection 4.4Ceiling 7.1
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Kendrick BourneWR, ARI vs LAReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 45
52%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›12%Target share
›5.7Targets
›79%Catch rate
›4.5Receptions
›10.4Yards per catch
›47Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
+7%LA vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 44.5Projection 46Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 44.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 60% | 55% | 64% | 49% |
The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.