TE, Dallas Cowboys
87
Jake Ferguson
27%
Jake Ferguson has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against Green Bay Packers in Week 6, the 78th highest on this week's board. Dallas Cowboys are projected for 25.8 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.8, receiving yards 26.
Touchdown breakdown
25.8Projected team points
2.7Expected team TDs
10%Share of team TD chances
−4%GB defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
3TDs this season
+4%Calibration vs real results
2.7 × 0.10 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.27 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
87Jake FergusonTE, DAL vs GBReceptions: 3.8 proj, avg 3.7
53%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.1Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.8Model
›3.8Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−2%GB vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 1.3Avg line 3.5Projection 3.8Ceiling 6.3
The ring shows a
53% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
87Jake FergusonTE, DAL vs GBReceiving yards: 26 proj, avg 26
48%
61.5Projected plays
›66%Pass rate
›40.3Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.1Targets
›75%Catch rate
›3.8Receptions
›6.6Yards per catch
›25Model
›26Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−6%GB pass D
−2%GB vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 26.5Projection 26Ceiling 46
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 26.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76% | 60% | 69% | 71% | 83% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.