WR, Houston Texans
13
Jaylin Noel
19%
Jaylin Noel has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 133rd highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.3, receiving yards 37.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+3%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.09 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.17 expected TDs = 15% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.3
41%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 37 proj, avg 36
52%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›15.9Yards per catch
›37Model
›37Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 35.5Projection 37Ceiling 66
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 60% | 26% | 62% | 45% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.