HOUHouston Texans20.0projected
9:30 AM ETSun, Oct 18
HOU +125JAX -134JAX -2.5O/U 42.5Neutral site
3days17hrs14min08secJAXJacksonville Jaguars22.5projected
Wembley StadiumOpen air
GrassOpen air
--°FTemperature
0 mph Wind
0%Rain chance
60.3Projected plays per team
Conditions look neutral, so no weather adjustment is applied. Neutral-site game.
Touchdown chances
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Player props
3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 50 proj, avg 45
56%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.2Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›52Model
›50Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 45.5Projection 50Ceiling 90
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 45.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 33 proj, avg 29
56%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Receptions
›15.6Yards per catch
›34Model
›33Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 7Avg line 29.5Projection 33Ceiling 59
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 29.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
3Jakobi MeyersWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 3.9 proj, avg 3.7
55%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›17%Target share
›5.2Targets
›77%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›3.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.4Avg line 3.5Projection 3.9Ceiling 6.5
The ring shows a
55% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 37 proj, avg 36
52%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Receptions
›15.9Yards per catch
›37Model
›37Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 35.5Projection 37Ceiling 66
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 35.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 66 proj, avg 65
52%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.4Targets
›63%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›16.5Yards per catch
›66Model
›66Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 14Avg line 64.5Projection 66Ceiling 118
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 64.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
16Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX vs HOUPassing yards: 237 proj, avg 235
51%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Pass attempts
›7.8Yards per attempt
›238Model
›237Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
−0%HOU pass defense
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 170Avg line 235.5Projection 237Ceiling 304
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 235.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outReceiving yards: 16 proj, avg 16
51%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›6.4Yards per catch
›16Model
›16Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−7%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 3Avg line 15.5Projection 16Ceiling 28
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 15.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 78 proj, avg 78
51%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›8.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›5.3Receptions
›14.8Yards per catch
›78Model
›78Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 16Avg line 77.5Projection 78Ceiling 140
The ring shows a
51% chance he goes over 77.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.7 proj, avg 2.8
50%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.7Model
›2.7Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.6Avg line 2.5Projection 2.7Ceiling 4.8
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
7C.J. StroudQB, HOU vs JAXPassing yards: 255 proj, avg 255
50%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Pass attempts
›6.6Yards per attempt
›255Model
›255Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+1%JAX pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 183Avg line 255.5Projection 255Ceiling 327
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 255.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Xavier HutchinsonWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 38 proj, avg 38
49%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›5.0Targets
›53%Catch rate
›2.7Receptions
›14.1Yards per catch
›37Model
›38Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 38.5Projection 38Ceiling 68
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 38.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 46 proj, avg 48
49%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.8Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.4Receptions
›10.5Yards per catch
›46Model
›46Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 47.5Projection 46Ceiling 83
The ring shows a
49% chance he goes over 47.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
33Bhayshul TutenRB, JAX vs HOURushing yards: 49 proj, avg 50
48%
58.8Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›28.1Team carries
›46%Carry share
›12.9Carries
›3.8Yards per carry
›49Model
›49Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+2%Game script
−7%HOU run D
−2%HOU vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 50.5Projection 49Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 45 proj, avg 46
48%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.4Targets
›75%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›11.0Yards per catch
›45Model
›45Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
−13%HOU vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 46.5Projection 45Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 46.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
86Dalton SchultzTE, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 4.5 proj, avg 4.8
47%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›15%Target share
›5.8Targets
›76%Catch rate
›4.4Model
›4.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−2%JAX vs TEs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.8Avg line 4.5Projection 4.5Ceiling 7.2
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
24Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB, JAX vs HOURushing yards: 21 proj, avg 23
46%
58.8Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›28.1Team carries
›20%Carry share
›5.6Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›21Model
›21Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+2%Game script
−7%HOU run D
−2%HOU vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 8Avg line 22.5Projection 21Ceiling 35
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outReceptions: 2.5 proj, avg 2.5
45%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›73%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.5Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−7%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 0.5Avg line 2.5Projection 2.5Ceiling 4.5
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
12Nico CollinsWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 5.3 proj, avg 5.4
44%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›22%Target share
›8.3Targets
›63%Catch rate
›5.3Model
›5.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 2.4Avg line 5.5Projection 5.3Ceiling 8.3
The ring shows a
44% chance he goes over 5.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
4Woody MarksRB, HOU vs JAXExpanded role, D. Montgomery outRushing yards: 52 proj, avg 57
41%
60.3Projected plays
›36%Run rate
›21.8Team carries
›73%Carry share
›16.0Carries
›3.1Yards per carry
›50Model
›52Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
−2%Game script
−8%JAX run D
−4%JAX vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 19Avg line 57.5Projection 52Ceiling 85
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 57.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
13Jaylin NoelWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.3 proj, avg 2.3
41%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›8%Target share
›3.1Targets
›74%Catch rate
›2.3Model
›2.3Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.3Ceiling 4.3
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.2
38%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.4Targets
›63%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
85Brenton StrangeTE, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.1
38%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›5.4Targets
›75%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
−13%HOU vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
19Josh CameronWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.0
36%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
36% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Defenses
| Defense | vs RB TDs | vs WR TDs | vs TE TDs | QB rush TDs | Pass yds rank | Rush yds rank | Red zone TD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | −11% | +11% | −33% | +33% | 23 | 3 | 41% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | −18% | −19% | −6% | +0% | 30 | 1 | 28% |