RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1
Kenny Gainwell
23%
Kenny Gainwell has a 23% chance to score a touchdown against Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 6, the 99th highest on this week's board. Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected for 18.5 points in 77°F with 18 mph wind. The model projects receptions 2.2.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
14%Share of team TD chances
−2%PIT defense vs RBs
+3%Weather
+0%Usage trend
1TDs this season
−1%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.14 × 0.98 × 1.03 × 1.00 =
0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 23% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
1Kenny GainwellRB, TB vs PITReceptions: 2.2 proj, avg 2.2
37%
59.0Projected plays
›57%Pass rate
›33.6Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.2Targets
›68%Catch rate
›2.2Model
›2.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−2%Pace
+2%Game script
−0%PIT pass D
−1%PIT vs RBs
−7%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.2Ceiling 4.1
The ring shows a
37% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.The matchup
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Raymond James Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.