RB, Green Bay Packers
32
MarShawn Lloyd
41%
MarShawn Lloyd has a 41% chance to score a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys in Week 6, the 24th highest on this week's board. Green Bay Packers are projected for 27.3 points in 58°F with 10 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 26, receptions 2.1.
Touchdown breakdown
27.3Projected team points
2.9Expected team TDs
20%Share of team TD chances
+14%DAL defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Usage trend
3TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
2.9 × 0.20 × 1.14 × 1.00 × 1.00 =
0.66 expected TDs = 48% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 41% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
32MarShawn LloydRB, GB vs DALRushing yards: 26 proj, avg 22
60%
60.3Projected plays
›33%Run rate
›19.6Team carries
›43%Carry share
›8.5Carries
›3.2Yards per carry
›27Model
›26Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
+2%Game script
+8%DAL run D
+4%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 9Avg line 22.5Projection 26Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
60% chance he goes over 22.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
32MarShawn LloydRB, GB vs DALReceptions: 2.1 proj, avg 2.0
35%
60.3Projected plays
›67%Pass rate
›40.7Team pass attempts
›7%Target share
›2.7Targets
›80%Catch rate
›2.1Model
›2.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+4%Pace
−1%Game script
+2%DAL pass D
+8%DAL vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+0%Usage trend
Floor 0.3Avg line 2.5Projection 2.1Ceiling 4.0
The ring shows a
35% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 27% | 23% | 55% | 44% |
The matchup
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay PackersSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET. Lambeau Field. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.