TE, New York Giants
84
Theo Johnson
16%
Theo Johnson has a 16% chance to score a touchdown against New Orleans Saints in Week 6, the 176th highest on this week's board. New York Giants are projected for 22.5 points in 55°F with 6 mph wind. The model projects receptions 1.9, receiving yards 23.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
6%Share of team TD chances
−4%NO defense vs TEs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.06 × 0.96 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 16% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
84Theo JohnsonTE, NYG vs NOReceptions: 1.9 proj, avg 2.0
30%
65.8Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›55%Catch rate
›1.9Model
›1.9Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.1Avg line 2.5Projection 1.9Ceiling 3.7
The ring shows a
30% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
84Theo JohnsonTE, NYG vs NOReceiving yards: 23 proj, avg 25
47%
65.8Projected plays
›56%Pass rate
›37.1Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›3.4Targets
›55%Catch rate
›1.9Receptions
›12.2Yards per catch
›23Model
›23Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+1%Game script
−3%NO pass D
−2%NO vs TEs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 5Avg line 24.5Projection 23Ceiling 42
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 28% | 17% | 33% | 48% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.