RB, Tennessee Titans
2
Tyjae Spears
19%
Tyjae Spears has a 19% chance to score a touchdown against Indianapolis Colts in Week 6, the 135th highest on this week's board. Tennessee Titans are projected for 18.5 points indoors. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 18.
Touchdown breakdown
18.5Projected team points
1.9Expected team TDs
8%Share of team TD chances
+8%IND defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+5%Calibration vs real results
1.9 × 0.08 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.15 expected TDs = 14% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 19% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
2Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN vs INDReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.1
40%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.6Targets
›91%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+5%IND vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
2Tyjae SpearsRB, TEN vs INDReceiving yards: 18 proj, avg 16
56%
57.5Projected plays
›63%Pass rate
›36.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.6Targets
›91%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›5.8Yards per catch
›19Model
›18Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+5%Pace
+4%Game script
+6%IND pass D
+5%IND vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 4Avg line 16.5Projection 18Ceiling 33
The ring shows a
56% chance he goes over 16.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 36% | 47% | 36% | 54% |
The matchup
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis ColtsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. Lucas Oil Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.