RB, New Orleans Saints
41
Alvin Kamara
37%
Alvin Kamara has a 37% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 38th highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 36, receptions 3.2.
Touchdown breakdown
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
+4%NYG defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
+7%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.13 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.36 expected TDs = 30% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 37% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYGRushing yards: 36 proj, avg 32
57%
66.5Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›43%Carry share
›10.1Carries
›3.6Yards per carry
›37Model
›36Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+1%Game script
+4%NYG run D
+1%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 13Avg line 32.5Projection 36Ceiling 58
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 32.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
41Alvin KamaraRB, NO vs NYGReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.1
40%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Team pass attempts
›9%Target share
›4.0Targets
›82%Catch rate
›3.3Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−4%NYG pass D
+2%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.5
The ring shows a
40% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | 29% | 32% | 38% | 27% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.