RB, New Orleans Saints
5
Kendre Miller
27%
Kendre Miller has a 27% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 79th highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects rushing yards 27.
Touchdown breakdown
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
15%Share of team TD chances
+4%NYG defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−7%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.15 × 1.04 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.41 expected TDs = 34% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 27% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
5Kendre MillerRB, NO vs NYGRushing yards: 27 proj, avg 24
57%
66.5Projected plays
›35%Run rate
›23.5Team carries
›32%Carry share
›7.4Carries
›3.7Yards per carry
›28Model
›27Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
+1%Game script
+4%NYG run D
+1%NYG vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 10Avg line 24.5Projection 27Ceiling 44
The ring shows a
57% chance he goes over 24.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | – | 19% | 26% | 31% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.