QB, New Orleans Saints
6
Tyler Shough
18%
Tyler Shough has a 18% chance to score a touchdown against New York Giants in Week 6, the 141st highest on this week's board. New Orleans Saints are projected for 23.3 points in 55°F with 7 mph wind. The model projects passing yards 236.
Touchdown breakdown
23.3Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
+23%NYG defense vs QBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.07 × 1.23 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.19 expected TDs = 17% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 18% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
6Tyler ShoughQB, NO vs NYGPassing yards: 236 proj, avg 243
45%
66.5Projected plays
›65%Pass rate
›43.0Pass attempts
›5.4Yards per attempt
›234Model
›236Final passing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−1%Pace
−1%Game script
−2%NYG pass defense
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Dome
Floor 169Avg line 242.5Projection 236Ceiling 302
The ring shows a
45% chance he goes over 242.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
The matchup
New Orleans Saints at New York GiantsSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET. MetLife Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.