WR, Washington Commanders
14
Antonio Williams
20%
Antonio Williams has a 20% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 122nd highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.2, receiving yards 31.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
9%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+1%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.09 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.21 expected TDs = 19% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 20% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 3.2 proj, avg 3.0
39%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.2Model
›3.2Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.9Avg line 3.5Projection 3.2Ceiling 5.4
The ring shows a
39% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Antonio WilliamsWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
50%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›13%Target share
›4.8Targets
›68%Catch rate
›3.2Receptions
›9.7Yards per catch
›31Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 31.5Projection 31Ceiling 56
The ring shows a
50% chance he goes over 31.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37% | 49% | 41% | 69% | 68% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.