WR, Washington Commanders
17
Terry McLaurin
26%
Terry McLaurin has a 26% chance to score a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers in Week 6, the 84th highest on this week's board. Washington Commanders are projected for 21.5 points in 63°F with 13 mph wind. The model projects receptions 3.6, receiving yards 51.
Touchdown breakdown
21.5Projected team points
2.3Expected team TDs
13%Share of team TD chances
−3%SF defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−4%Usage trend
1TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.3 × 0.13 × 0.97 × 1.00 × 0.96 =
0.28 expected TDs = 24% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 26% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SFReceptions: 3.6 proj, avg 3.6
47%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.3Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.5Model
›3.6Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 1.1Avg line 3.5Projection 3.6Ceiling 6.0
The ring shows a
47% chance he goes over 3.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
17Terry McLaurinWR, WAS vs SFReceiving yards: 51 proj, avg 55
46%
62.3Projected plays
›58%Pass rate
›35.9Team pass attempts
›18%Target share
›6.3Targets
›56%Catch rate
›3.5Receptions
›14.3Yards per catch
›50Model
›51Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+5%Game script
−5%SF pass D
−2%SF vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
−3%Usage trend
Floor 11Avg line 54.5Projection 51Ceiling 92
The ring shows a
46% chance he goes over 54.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87% | 70% | 75% | – | 58% |
The matchup
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ersMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET. Levi's Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.