RB, Arizona Cardinals
20
Bam Knight
26%
Bam Knight has a 26% chance to score a touchdown against Los Angeles Rams in Week 6, the 86th highest on this week's board. Arizona Cardinals are projected for 19.5 points indoors. The model projects rushing yards 33, receptions 2.0.
Touchdown breakdown
19.5Projected team points
2.0Expected team TDs
12%Share of team TD chances
−13%LA defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+8%Calibration vs real results
+460Best odds (FanDuel), 18% implied
21%Model + market blend
+3%Edge vs book
2.0 × 0.12 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.19 expected TDs = 18% raw, calibrated against 4,223 past player-games to 26% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
20Bam KnightRB, ARI vs LAExpanded role, J. Love outRushing yards: 33 proj, avg 36
41%
68.2Projected plays
›32%Run rate
›21.6Team carries
›38%Carry share
›8.3Carries
›3.8Yards per carry
›31Model
›33Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
−12%Game script
+4%LA run D
−4%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 12Avg line 36.5Projection 33Ceiling 53
The ring shows a
41% chance he goes over 36.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
20Bam KnightRB, ARI vs LAExpanded role, J. Love outReceptions: 2.0 proj, avg 2.0
32%
68.2Projected plays
›68%Pass rate
›46.6Team pass attempts
›6%Target share
›3.0Targets
›66%Catch rate
›2.0Model
›2.0Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+3%Pace
+7%Game script
−7%LA pass D
−7%LA vs RBs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+2%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 0.2Avg line 2.5Projection 2.0Ceiling 3.8
The ring shows a
32% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.The matchup
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles RamsSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET. SoFi Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.