WR, Houston Texans
14
Kayshon Boutte
14%
Kayshon Boutte has a 14% chance to score a touchdown against Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 6, the 209th highest on this week's board. Houston Texans are projected for 20.0 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 2.4, receiving yards 31.
Touchdown breakdown
20.0Projected team points
2.1Expected team TDs
7%Share of team TD chances
−13%JAX defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
+8%Usage trend
0TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.1 × 0.07 × 0.87 × 1.00 × 1.08 =
0.13 expected TDs = 12% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 14% chance to score. Rated long shot.Player props
14Kayshon BoutteWR, HOU vs JAXReceptions: 2.4 proj, avg 2.4
43%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.8Targets
›64%Catch rate
›2.4Model
›2.4Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 0.4Avg line 2.5Projection 2.4Ceiling 4.4
The ring shows a
43% chance he goes over 2.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
14Kayshon BoutteWR, HOU vs JAXReceiving yards: 31 proj, avg 31
52%
60.3Projected plays
›64%Pass rate
›38.5Team pass attempts
›10%Target share
›3.8Targets
›64%Catch rate
›2.4Receptions
›13.1Yards per catch
›32Model
›31Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
−3%Pace
+1%Game script
+7%JAX pass D
−8%JAX vs WRs
+0%Weather
+0%Home field
+0%Surface
+6%Usage trend
Floor 6Avg line 30.5Projection 31Ceiling 56
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 30.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46% | 72% | 69% | 62% | 59% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.