RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
33
Bhayshul Tuten
36%
Bhayshul Tuten has a 36% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 39th highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects rushing yards 49.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
21%Share of team TD chances
−8%HOU defense vs RBs
+0%Weather
+4%Usage trend
2TDs this season
−2%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.21 × 0.92 × 1.00 × 1.04 =
0.48 expected TDs = 38% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 36% chance to score. Rated strong.Player props
33Bhayshul TutenRB, JAX vs HOURushing yards: 49 proj, avg 50
48%
58.8Projected plays
›48%Run rate
›28.1Team carries
›46%Carry share
›12.9Carries
›3.8Yards per carry
›49Model
›49Final rushing yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
+2%Game script
−7%HOU run D
−2%HOU vs RBs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
+3%Usage trend
Floor 18Avg line 50.5Projection 49Ceiling 81
The ring shows a
48% chance he goes over 50.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49% | 51% | 48% | 59% | 68% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.