WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
11
Parker Washington
33%
Parker Washington has a 33% chance to score a touchdown against Houston Texans in Week 6, the 52nd highest on this week's board. Jacksonville Jaguars are projected for 22.5 points with the forecast still pending. The model projects receptions 4.1, receiving yards 66.
Touchdown breakdown
22.5Projected team points
2.4Expected team TDs
16%Share of team TD chances
+8%HOU defense vs WRs
+0%Weather
−8%Usage trend
4TDs this season
+2%Calibration vs real results
2.4 × 0.16 × 1.08 × 1.00 × 0.92 =
0.37 expected TDs = 31% raw, calibrated against 4,205 past player-games to 33% chance to score. Rated solid.Player props
11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOUReceptions: 4.1 proj, avg 4.2
38%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.4Targets
›63%Catch rate
›4.0Model
›4.1Final receptions (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 1.5Avg line 4.5Projection 4.1Ceiling 6.6
The ring shows a
38% chance he goes over 4.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a Poisson distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.
11Parker WashingtonWR, JAX vs HOUReceiving yards: 66 proj, avg 65
52%
58.8Projected plays
›52%Pass rate
›30.6Team pass attempts
›21%Target share
›6.4Targets
›63%Catch rate
›4.0Receptions
›16.5Yards per catch
›66Model
›66Final receiving yards (75% model, 25% avg)
+1%Pace
−2%Game script
+3%HOU pass D
+4%HOU vs WRs
+0%Weather
+1%Home field
+0%Surface
−6%Usage trend
Floor 14Avg line 64.5Projection 66Ceiling 118
The ring shows a
52% chance he goes over 64.5, the half-point line nearest his season average. Projections use a normal distribution; the range covers the middle 80% of outcomes.Snap share
| Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 61% | 81% | 81% | 80% | 82% |
The matchup
Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET. Wembley Stadium. Full game breakdown, every player's TD chance and props.